Sometimes, it takes a well-meaning outsider to tell a family the harsh truth. Volodymyr Zelensky is well placed to understand the nature of power relations, and on Tuesday, January 21, at the Davos World Economic Forum, he gave an implacable lecture on clear-sightedness to the European family that his country, Ukraine, has so desperately aspired to join.
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While he never forgets to express his gratitude to the family that supports his country at war, both materially and politically, the Ukrainian president seized the opportunity presented by President Donald Trump’s thunderous accession to power the day before, trying to shake Europe out of its torpor and make it aware of the challenges that lie ahead. He painted a perfectly realistic picture of Europe: A community of states that was reluctant to achieve power, lagging behind in technology and arms production, a rich and developed region with no ambition other than its own comfort, which has continued to buy gas from Russia all while expecting the US to ensure its security.
Europeans, he noted, don’t even know if they’ll have a seat at the table in any negotiations to end the war. “Will Donald Trump listen to you, or will he negotiate with Russia and China? Europe needs to learn how to fully take care of itself so that the world cannot ignore it.”
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Since Trump’s November 5 presidential election victory, Europeans have been discussing his return’s possible consequences for them and for how to organize their defense in a chaotic world, one that no longer obeys the rule of law and where the US has priorities other than Europe. On Tuesday, in Davos, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, too, emphasized the need to face up to “a new era of harsh geostrategic competition.”
Security guarantees
This will mean – and European leaders all know this – spending more on defense. It must be said that, to Trump’s credit, the threats he made to his NATO partners during his first term in office have finally paid off. Today, 23 of the 32 members of the Atlantic alliance devote at least 2% of their GDP to defense spending, a target set in 2014 under President Obama, and one whose necessity has been highlighted by Russia’s growing aggressiveness. Now, however, President Trump has been talking about 5%. Only Poland and Lithuania are close to this target, but, for the others, the 3% threshold already appears minimal.
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Clearly, if Ukraine manages to achieve a negotiated peace with Russia, it will need strong security guarantees. Europe, whose security will also be at stake, will be called upon to contribute. The truth on this is finally beginning to be spoken in Europe, beyond the Scandinavians, the Baltic countries and Poland. In Berlin and Paris, belatedly recognized that defense spending will have to be increased, the defense industrial base reorganized, and the resilience of the population increased. More daring voices have even added that this will involve painful budgetary sacrifices. In Brussels, a new European commissioner for defense is preparing a white paper. All of this is taking too long. Neither France nor Europe can afford the luxury of procrastination. The time has come to get down to practical matters, and to make the vital point clear to the electorate.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.
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Publish date : 2025-01-22 02:53:00
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