Hungary’s Orbán: «We are the future»

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is Europe’s longest-serving head of government – and the most polarizing. In an NZZ interview, he explains why he trusts Vladimir Putin and says only Donald Trump can end the war in Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the library next to his office. He turns the globe so that the United States is visible. There is the future, he says.

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When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán gives an interview, his team leaves hardly anything to chance. This starts with the location: Our conversation takes place in the library of the Carmelite Monastery, high above Budapest, where Hungary’s prime minister has had his official residence since 2019. From the window, we have a spectacular view of the Danube River and the parliament building. On two levels connected by a wrought-iron spiral staircase, walls are lined with shelves full of antique books. Staffers swiftly place a large national flag next to the table where we will speak.

Then the 61-year-old enters the room, shakes hands and poses for a picture in front of a wooden globe that rises nearly to his own height. This depicts the world as it was before World War I – especially imperial Europe, including Hungary with its pre-1920 borders. But before the photographer snaps the picture, Orbán has the presence of mind to spin the globe to the right, bringing the United States into view. «When the historic Hungary is visible behind me, everyone always gets upset,» he says. «America is more representative of the future.»

Prime Minister Orbán, Donald Trump has been back in office as U.S. president for 10 days [Editor’s note: Interview was conducted on Jan. 31]. You have supported him since 2016, and have always hoped for his return. What does this mean for you now?

The world has changed as much in 10 days as it has in years [smiles]. This is the Trump tornado. But for Hungary it is simple: We have faced pressure from Brussels and Washington. If a country with 10 million people has two boots on its chest, it is very difficult to survive. We were the black sheep of the West. Now it is clear that what Trump is doing and what we have done over the last 15 years is the future. We are happy, relaxed.

Where specifically do you hope to see an improvement in relations with the United States?

The Democrats hated us. We had opposing positions on issues such as migration, gender and the war in Ukraine. They supported all the organizations and media in Hungary that are against me. Trump has put an end to that. We also hope that the Americans will again invest more in our country. In recent years, they have fallen even behind China.

You are the prime minister of a small state in a geopolitically unstable region. Trump wants to focus more on Asia, at the expense of military involvement in Europe. What consequences might this have for Hungary’s security?

If the Europeans do not make the Americans a good offer with regard to cooperation, they will no longer provide us with security. Sitting down and waiting is not a solution. We have to come up with ideas. Europe may be rich, but it is also weak. This is the most dangerous combination. We were able to enjoy the peace dividend for a long time. We have lost this under Trump.

The geopolitical situation is polarizing the world. But Hungary wants good relations with the West, with China and with Russia. Are you in danger of being crushed between the blocs?

No, quite the opposite. I grew up during the Cold War. My experience from that time was that the two biggest actors always make a deal. It is numbers three and four that have the problem. The Americans will come to an agreement with the Chinese. Thus, it will not be a problem for Hungary to maintain good relations with Beijing and Washington. With Russia it is more difficult. We would like to keep all business relationships open. However, the EU is opposing this. The American position remains unclear at the moment. We’ll have to wait and see.

It sounds as if you are already resigned to Hungary’s need to position itself in a world in a post-Western world.

Yes, this is how I think, even if it is harsh and provocative. Economically, we live in a world without Western supremacy. The EU has shown a persistent competitive decline. It has no strategy and no leadership. What is happening here is embarrassing. The forward momentum in the global economy can be found in the East – and now again in the United States. China is developing rapidly, as is India. If Hungary were to have economic relations only with Europe, it would be crazy.

And what does this mean for security policy?

That we Europeans must be modest. The EU talks about being a global actor. But it can’t control developments even in its own neighborhood. We were unable to prevent the war between Russia and Ukraine and have failed to integrate the Western Balkans. No global actor behaves like this. A common foreign policy would be realistic only if Germany and France had strong political leadership, and if the rest were to go along with them. But that is not the case.

But it has been your country that has repeatedly delayed or blocked decisions, such as the recent extension on sanctions against Russia.

We are against the sanctions. We have lost €19.5 billion in the last three years because we have had to restrict trade, and because energy prices have risen. Hungary has suffered more than Russia from the sanctions.

So why do you keep agreeing to the extension, most recently in late January?

Because we reached an agreement with the EU Commission on the energy issue. Oil and natural gas from Russia are vital for the Hungarian economy. And we have received assurances that Brussels will support the resumption of gas transit through Ukraine, continue to allow the transport of oil through the Druzhba pipeline and prevent disruptive actions by Kyiv.

Yet these guarantees are rather vague, aren’t they? Especially as the EU Commission has no control over much of this.

It is more than nothing. But the point is that the EU Commission is representing our interests vis-à-vis Ukraine. Landlocked countries such as Hungary and Slovakia need Russia for their oil and gas supplies.

But the sanctions did little to affect the energy sector. Natural gas is not included at all, and decision-makers have been very cautious about oil for fear of high gasoline prices.

Yes, but do you know why? Because we said we would use our veto if sanctions were imposed in this area. That is the only reason.

«It was a mistake to let [Ukraine] believe that we would stand by its side until victory,» says Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Why has Hungary become so dependent on Russian energy? In 2021, you signed a gas supply contract covering half of Hungary’s consumption for 15 years.

In recent years, we have invested in pipelines to almost all of our neighboring countries. We will also be receiving more gas and oil soon from Romania, Azerbaijan and Turkey. We are also promoting renewable energies and electrification. But we need Russia as a supplier. This is why we want to return to normal economic cooperation.

Hasn’t that been an illusory goal since Feb. 24, 2022?

We have never seen sanctions as a suitable means of ending the war. But Joe Biden said at the time: «Putin must fail.» The West wants to use Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine to weaken the country, to force it back. Russia is meant to be brought to its knees, and forced to give up its military objectives in Ukraine. That simply hasn’t worked out.

Nevertheless, Russia is the aggressor, as you said yourself.

This is the official position of the European Union. I am being loyal here.

Do you personally see it differently?

Hmm … [hesitates]. Let’s leave the assessment to the historians. I am a politician and we have an EU decision. It obliges me to speak of «Russian aggression.»

But then why do you constantly criticize the EU for its «war policy?»

Because we made a big mistake in February 2022. We should have isolated the conflict immediately, enforced a ceasefire and started negotiations. It was clear from the beginning that a Ukrainian victory was impossible as long as we didn’t enter into an all-out war. That was not an option. Today, we can help Ukraine only with a ceasefire and peace.

But the Ukrainians should make that decision.

Yes, we are not in a moral position to make a decision for a country that is under attack. But it was a mistake to let it believe that we would stand by its side until victory. That is not the case.

What would a ceasefire look like? Would Ukraine have to make territorial concessions?

That would have been much easier at the beginning. In the meantime, so many Ukrainians have lost their lives defending their country. What did they die for? This is a serious moral dilemma – fortunately not mine. It is up to the people who supported this crazy war strategy.

Your criticism of the West’s indecisive strategy may be justified. But why didn’t the West just give Ukraine everything it needed to win?

No amount of weapons would have been enough. The West can win this war only if it sends its own soldiers to Ukraine. And we have ruled that out. The Ukrainians simply don’t have enough men. That’s why Trump is needed now.

What can he do?

If you are faced with a Gordian knot, you have to cut through it. This requires a strong man with a sword. It’s no longer about what ideas we have. Trump needs to sit down with Russia and Ukraine and tell them, «People, we’re going to have a ceasefire. It’s the only way.» Weak leaders cause wars. Strong ones create peace.

Orbán has governed Hungary with a two-thirds parliamentary majority for almost 15 years. He says this has allowed him to achieve «great things.»

What makes you think that Russia would be content with its conquests to date if the conflict were frozen? Putin has said so often that he considers Ukraine to be an artificial nation with no right to exist.

Nobody knows what is going on in Putin’s head. There is no point in speculating about it. But we need diplomacy now. The Europeans think it is moral not to negotiate. This is absurd. You have to do that in a war! Otherwise it will continue to the point of extinction, and Ukraine will become the Afghanistan of the European Union.

You have met Vladimir Putin many times, most recently in July 2024. Do you trust him?

When I was about to return to power in 2009, I met him and agreed with him that we would focus on the future. It was clear to me that good relations with Moscow and close economic cooperation were in Hungary’s geopolitical interests. We have concluded many agreements. Putin has always kept his word. My experience of the last 15 years is that Hungary can trust Russia.

Ukraine has had a different experience …

Yes, that is definitely true! But that’s how it is with us.

You say that Putin would never attack a NATO country. But if you look at his proposals from 2021, before the war, he also called for the reversal of NATO’s eastward expansion. This would directly affect Hungary.

I asked him directly whether he had a problem with Hungary’s NATO membership. He said no. Because we have no weapons stationed on our territory that Russia sees as a threat. Only long-range tactical weapons constitute such a threat for Putin. It’s hard to imagine the Hungarians invading Moscow [laughs].

Your friendliness toward Russia is nevertheless surprising. In 1989, you launched your career by calling for the withdrawal of Moscow’s troops from Hungary.

And that has been done [laughs]. But I am not pro-Russia, I am pro-Hungary.

But Hungary shares a difficult history with Russia, whose troops put down national uprisings in 1849 and 1956.

And don’t forget World War I! The czar said he wanted to spend Christmas in Budapest. Hungary has historically lived within the Moscow-Berlin-Istanbul triangle. We have had negative experiences with all of them. But I agreed with Putin to leave the history of our two countries to the historians. I don’t want any country to occupy Hungary. No great power should be able to tell the Hungarians how they should live. However, Russia today threatens neither our freedom nor our sovereignty.

In your speeches, you often sound as if you consider Brussels to be a greater threat than Moscow.

In another dimension – but yes, that is so. It’s easy to reach a rational agreement with Russia. It is almost impossible with the people in Brussels. Domestically, they only support my opponents here. I have had to win against Brussels and the nongovernmental organizations. It is difficult to sit down with those who want to destroy you at every election. And take a look at migration: We interpret the European rule to mean that we must protect the Schengen external border from illegal border crossings. That’s what we have done. We are being punished for this, because it is said to be incompatible with EU laws. The Poles recently did exactly the same thing, even more brutally. Everyone said: No problem.

You often bring up problems that many people are concerned about. Nevertheless, Hungary is isolated in the EU. Why have you been unable to form alliances? Your effort to bring together an alliance of all right-wing parties in a joint parliamentary group failed last year.

Not at all! The Patriots for Europe [Editor’s note: The new parliamentary group in the EU Parliament that includes Orbán’s Fidesz party, France’s National Rally, Italy’s League party and the Freedom Party of Austria] and other populists are back in the mainstream. Similarly minded parties are in power in Italy, Slovakia and, possibly, soon in Austria. For me, the divine message here is: «Viktor, you are on the side of the winners.» We are getting stronger and will soon have a majority. The large right-wing alliance will also be a possibility after the war in Ukraine. The only thing standing in the way of this is the differing attitudes toward Russia. Europe will look different in a few years than it does today.

You started your career in the Liberal International, and later spent many years in the conservative European People’s Party Group. Now, last year, you co-founded the Patriots for Europe. Has the political landscape moved to the left, or have you moved to the right?

Fidesz was made up of anticommunist freedom fighters, and so were the liberal parties at the time. After our first election victory in 1998, Helmut Kohl invited me to join the EPP. At the time, that was indeed a step from the center to the right. We stayed there, even though we left the conservatives again four years ago. They were the ones who had moved to the left.

At this moment, one of Orbán’s staff members, who has been listening to the conversation from the upper floor of the high-ceilinged room, descends the narrow spiral staircase and hands the prime minister a note. «Oh! Merz has lost,» Orbán says, reading off the result of the vote on asylum law that has just taken place in the German Bundestag. [Editor’s note: German Christian Democratic Union party head Friedrich Merz had introduced a bill that would tighten asylum and other migration rules. Merz’s reliance on the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party sparked nationwide protests]. «Some CDU lawmakers have rejected the bill. Even with the votes of the AfD, Merz had only 338 votes. Less than a month before the election! Poor Merz,» Orbán continues. «If you want to break a taboo, you have to be successful. If, on the other hand, the taboo is stronger, you appear weak,» he declares. But it seems he is surprised and is not gloating. «That’s a problem.»

The election in Germany is important for the whole of Europe. You seem to sympathize with the AfD, but the Patriots don’t want this party in their parliamentary group. Why?

The AfD is more of a movement than a party. Because of that, crazy people and ideas can emerge – a risk that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally did not want to take. We have no experience with the AfD and no relationships with them. Its program sounds good for Hungary: tax cuts, a redimensioning of the Green Deal, a return to nuclear energy and a strict migration policy. But I don’t want to interfere in German affairs.

Last year, a new competitor to Orbán emerged in the person of Péter Magyar, who leads the prime minister’s party in some polls. This is nothing out of the ordinary in a democracy, Orbán says.

Do you also think the AfD has some crazy people in its ranks?

I can read [laughs]. There are statements that simply cannot be part of the political culture in the 21st century. But I myself led movements in the fight against the communist regime in Hungary. Crazy people turned up there too. If you institutionalize politics in a party, it becomes more boring, but more predictable.

How should a political system deal with such a party?

We don’t have a cordon sanitaire in Hungary. If a party receives votes from the people, we take it seriously. This does not mean that we work with it. But we sit down together and have a discussion. A cordon sanitaire makes for primitive political thought. [AfD co-chair] Alice Weidel called me and asked for a meeting. I will meet with her next week in Budapest. The AfD could receive 20% of the vote. If their party head wants to talk to me, why should I say no? If [German Chancellor] Olaf Scholz were to call me, I would also meet with him. But there isn’t much danger of that [laughs].

You yourself have governed almost continuously for 15 years with a two-thirds parliamentary majority. Recently, however, a serious political rival has emerged from nowhere, whose name you never mention publicly: Péter Magyar. Does that worry you?

In a democracy, you always have to be ready for political opponents. Even if you win almost half of the votes, as we did, the rest go to others. This is nothing out of the ordinary. In the last election in 2022, all opposition parties joined forces with a joint list. This was not successful, and they are now trying again.

But doesn’t the rapid rise of such a candidate indicate dissatisfaction with your governance?

The answer is yes, that is partly what it means. The war and the sanctions have created a very difficult situation over the last three years, with high inflation, increased energy prices and low growth. I don’t like the war for many reasons, including economic ones.

Have you made mistakes, for example with the price caps on certain foodstuffs?

We have had intensive discussions about the price caps. I still think these are good, but there are arguments against the policy that are worth considering. Croatia has just adopted price caps for numerous products. That wouldn’t happen if this was a stupid policy. But of course no government does everything right. The last quarter was at least satisfactory. We are no longer in recession, and the growth rate this year should be up to twice as high as the European average.

The opposition accuses your government and people in your circle of corruption. The EU has blocked billions in cohesion funds, citing a failure to respect the rule of law. What do you say to these accusations?

Corruption is the opposition’s favorite topic. I always say: Point me to the specific misconduct. If there are violations of the law, these must be cleared up in court. But there are no such complaints. I cannot say that there is no corruption in Hungary, and something must be done about it. But we are no worse off than other EU countries. Just take a look at the data from the World Bank.

In many suspected cases, the public prosecutor’s office does not initiate investigations. Why is Hungary the only EU country refusing to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office? That would generate more trust.

Unlike in most European Union countries, the public prosecutor’s office in Hungary reports to parliament, and not to the government. This is also a question of sovereignty. I will never accept a legal system in which non-Hungarian authorities conduct proceedings against Hungarian citizens. That is impossible, even according to the constitution. We lived under Soviet rule and had to relinquish sovereignty over criminal proceedings. For us, this is a question of principle. Hungary is entitled to the money frozen by Brussels. A tranche of over €12 billion has already been released. I will continue to negotiate. Budget issues in particular require unanimous decisions in Brussels. But I will never agree to the new financial framework iunless it is fair to Hungary and compensates for our losses in the current period. We will receive every cent that is rightfully ours.

Your long period in government has led to a concentration of power and economic resources in the hands of those around you. Do you not see this as a threat to democracy?

When it comes to economic resources, the opposite is the case. My government has lowered taxes, meaning less money is centralized by the state and instead remains with the people and businesses. However, I have indeed centralized certain areas, while decentralizing others. For example, we have privatized the universities – there is no longer any state control there.

However, they are now overseen by foundations that are controlled by people close to you.

Everyone is close to me! I am the prime minister of this country [laughs]. When I am criticized for having close ties to someone, I say: Of course, how could it be otherwise! In the business world of a country with 10 million people, I naturally know all the major entrepreneurs personally. But you are right: Being in power for a long time carries risks. This is why I reshuffle the government every four years, and replace people.

You are the longest-serving head of government in the EU. Are there no signs of fatigue?

The question is how long the party will continue to see me as the most promising person to win elections. At the moment, my approval rating among the population is even higher than that of the party. As long as that is the case, I will continue to lead the fight.

You don’t want to give up politics at some point?

After my football career failed due to a lack of talent, an academic career initially seemed to me to be the most appealing option. The second option after the fall of communism was the business world, which offered many new opportunities. But I became addicted to politics. And I soon realized that this is a definitive choice, one that I will remain true to for the rest of my life – if people vote for me. As long as I am mentally able, I would like to stay in parliament. I imagine it’s nice to be an old, respected man sitting on the backbenches, being asked for advice by the younger ones. And to see the results of what I’ve done in my political life. Because even if I am criticized for it: I have done something at a historic time.

«I’m addicted to politics.» Viktor Orbán says he wants to remain politically active as long as this is still mentally possible for him.

A revolutionary for Hungary

bam./mij. Viktor Orbán has been prime minister of Hungary since 2010. His Fidesz party has governed with a two-thirds parliamentary majority for most of this period. His 2010 victory marked a return to power, having previously served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002. Born in 1963, he studied law in Budapest and was a founding member of Fidesz, a radical anticommunist student group, shortly before the fall of communism.

Orbán rose to national prominence in June 1989 when he called for the withdrawal of Soviet troops stationed in Hungary during the reburial of Imre Nagy, a hero of the 1956 uprising. The young politician thus became a liberal beacon of hope, gaining attention beyond Hungary’s borders. This image has shifted over the course of his lengthy second term. Orbán has steadily expanded his party’s control over the country, turning his sights on the judiciary, the media and nongovernmental organizations. In response, the EU initiated rule-of-law proceedings against Hungary in 2018.

In his interview with the NZZ, he openly acknowledges the allure of power: «It releases adrenaline,» he says. However, the intellectual component of politics is more important to him, he adds. «I was lucky. The most interesting period was during my early years in politics, with the system change. We were able to build a completely new system. What could be more exciting?» After losing the 2002 election, he says, he had to figure out how to stage a comeback. Ultimately, his two-thirds parliamentary majority gave him the opportunity to accomplish «genuinely big things,» he says.

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Publish date : 2025-02-07 02:55:00

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