“Obviously for those countries that are close to Russia, Russia is a real existential threat.”
“Yes. If you live here, you feel the pressure, at least to some extent. Try to imagine the situation in Poland or Estonia.
“Obviously for those countries that are close to Russia, Russia is a real existential threat. That’s not so much the case for, I don’t know, Portugal, Ireland or even France.”
Where does this all leave NATO? For example, if in a few months from now the Russians decided – obviously very hypothetically – to invade one of the Baltic States, what would happen, do you think?
“I think as things stand now, it’s really a hypothetical question, a very hypothetical question.
“Nevertheless, let’s say we are not talking about in two or three months – let’s say that we are talking about in two or three years.
“I don’t know what would happen. That’s the most terrifying part. Because one can imagine that Trump eventually decides to take back at least some of the US forces from Europe.
“And one can also imagine that some hypothetical future clash between the Europeans and the Americans will lead to a situation when NATO is going to be defunct – not de iure, but de facto.
“Am I certain that nations would come to help Estonia or Poland? I don’t know.”
“I say this as a worst case scenario. But that’s definitely something we should think about.
“I’m not saying that NATO is dead. Not at all. But definitely we can see those darker scenarios as, let’s say, more realistic than 10 years ago.
“So am I perfectly certain that other nations would come to help, I don’t know, Estonia or Poland? I don’t know. I hope so, but I’m not 100 percent sure.”
But if NATO doesn’t enforce Article 5, it might as well not exist, right?
“Precisely. And that’s the biggest fear, obviously.
“The relationship between the US and Europe was definitely unequal, and in this sense Trump and his company are absolutely right.”
“However, here we need to say one thing: The relationship between the United States and Europe was definitely unequal, and in this sense Trump and his company are absolutely right.
“It was absolutely that Europeans provided something like 25 percent of NATO capabilities, while the United States provided something like 70 or 75 percent.
“It was really, really strange, so let’s be honest – it’s absolutely fair from the American side to want more European engagement when it comes to defence.
“And this holds even for the Czech Republic or other Central European countries, like Germany.
“So let’s be honest. It’s absolutely understandable that the United States want us to pay more and do more. That’s perfectly fine.”
We heard a lot last year about how Europe needed to “Trump-proof” itself to prepare for bad scenarios. Also that this could be an opportunity for Europe to step up and take more responsibility. Now the new reality is here, how do you think what we’ve seen will impact Czechia looks at defence planning?
“The Czech Republic were one of the biggest free riders [in NATO].”
“First, the Czech Republic were one of the biggest free riders, let’s say from 2010 to 2020, perhaps 2021. We were among the states that spent the smallest amount, relatively speaking in percentage of GDP, on defence.
“Now we are around the, let’s say, median value of NATO, around 2 percent, hopefully.
“It will be very, very difficult to get to 3 percent. Because so far it was very, very hard for us to get to 2 percent and, honestly, 2 percent is not that hard.
“So it’s going to be difficult. Obviously it will increase the pressures to increase defence spending. Also it will lead to further debates about how the defence posture should look.
“Nevertheless, if you look at the political elite it’s pretty clear that, for example, neither the Civic Democratic Party nor ANO want to discuss the at least hypothetical possibility of military service.
“Yet we know that we cannot get to the promised numbers of soldiers, or the numbers that we’re going to promise to NATO in a very few months.
“So this leaves me with a small desperation that we won’t be able to fully rise up to the challenge.”
I’d like to get back to troop numbers in a moment, but first, has there been any Czech response to Trump’s call for 5 percent spending on defence?
Donald Trump|Photo: Aaron Schwartz, Profimedia
“Look, 5 percent is not realistic.
“Let’s remind ourselves of one thing: Even during the height of the Cold War, say ’65 to ’85, most European Countries, with the exception of Great Britain, spent something like 3 percent on defence, plus/minus, depending on the year and the situation.
“So if Trump now wants us to spend 5 percent, this is ridiculous.”
Also where did he get the number? It seems like he just pulled it out of the air.
“Precisely. I don’t think there is a rationale when it comes to this number.
“If he said, let’s say, 3, or 3.5, I would say, OK, that makes sense. It’s something that existed during the Cold War, so there is a some kind of precedent.
“And during the Cold War that was enough to deter a very, very powerful Soviet Union. But Russia is not a Soviet Union. It’s a way smaller state, technologically speaking it’s quite backward.
“So therefore I think something like 3 or 3.5 percent should suffice.
“However, we need to say one thing: A big problem is that the Europeans did not spend enough in the preceding decade, so there is a kind of debt when it comes to defence.
“We need to somehow pay this debt in a relatively short time to be able to defend against the Russians, even without the Americans.
“And this obviously means that probably we need to spend, on average, a little bit more than 3 percent.
“But 5 percent seems an absolutely crazy idea.”
The day after Vance’s speech I was talking to a friend who has two boys aged around 10 and he said he was worried that in 10 years from now they’d be in the army, they’d be conscripted. The Czechs did away with conscription two decades ago – what chance is there that it could come back, realistically speaking?
“It depends, country by country. In the case of the Czech Republic, I think that the chances are not that great.
“However, I would like to highlight that unwillingness to discuss this option is a huge mistake. Because the only way to substitute for compulsory military service is to pay soldiers exorbitant salaries.
“So if anybody is willing to pay more in taxes, I would say, OK, I have no problem with that – but be aware that you’re going to need to pay for it.
“If you consider this, then probably compulsory military service is a logical step. And also as long as we are citizens of our country, we have a responsibility to defend it.”
At present the Czech Army has 25,000 or 30,000 professional members. Is size of army still relevant? I remember hearing some years ago that in the future war would be about capabilities in terms of technology, not about boots on the ground. Why is 25,000 or 30,000 not enough soldiers?
“First of all, look at what’s happening in Ukraine – numbers are still important.
“Simply, if it would be perfectly enough to have just a few thousand well-equipped soldiers, then the Ukrainian counterattack in 2023 would have succeeded.
“You need something that I would call ‘reserve depth’, being able to take casualties.”
“But that was not the case, so obviously you need the numbers. You need something that I would call ‘reserve depth’, being able to take casualties – and in a conventional war casualties are a normal part of combat. Therefore numbers are important.
“I’m not saying that you can think just numbers are going to solve all your problems. Technology as well as tactical competence are super important.
“Nevertheless, do not expect that you could substitute by marginally better technology a missing number of soldiers by, I don’t know, 50 percent.
“That’s not going to happen. That’s not a solution.”
Another aspect of JD Vance’s speech when he very clearly supported Europe’s hard right parties. After his speech he met with the leader of the AfD in Germany. What does this mean for Czech populist parties? Will they be rubbing their hands?
“I think they will. But they do not understand that obviously the current AfD would not be a great choice for the Czech Republic.
“Because obviously their viewpoint… Let’s say that the current AfD wants to make Germany great again – and that’s obviously something that’s not a nice idea for Czechs.”
But regardless of the AfD’s plans, what about the Czech parties, for example ANO? I saw after the Vance speech that the ANO MP Vondráček praised his support for “free speech”. Will ANO be trying to capitalise on this kinds of Trump wave?
“Obviously. But just one small note: I would not compare ANO and the AfD – I still think there are some differences.
Andrej Babiš|Photo: Zuzana Jarolímková, iROZHLAS.cz
“Nevertheless, yes, they will try to capitalise on this part of the speech, as will other parties, let’s say right-wing, more nationalist parties.
“And I’m not saying this as a pejorative. This group of parties will probably try to say, Hey, we needed to hear this. Because at least part of what JD Vance said was, I would say, based on actual evidence.
“And he was able to tackle topics that are a great concern for a significant portion of the electorate.
“Nevertheless, the question is whether JD Vance, who is now in the administration of Donald Trump, and who basically says that January 6 was kind of OK – and I guess we can probably agree that it was not.”
Well they pardoned the perpetrators, right?
“So one wonders to what extent JD Vance is the right person to tell Europeans what is freedom of speech, what is the right way of democracy.
“But that’s probably a different issue.”
Obviously the Czech Republic has been a major supporter of Ukraine from the start of the full-scale invasion. What is the Czech government’s response, or has there been a response so far, to Trump’s move to open “peace talks” with Putin?
“I think that those in the government that are, let’s say, smarter anticipated something like this. Also they haven’t had time to react properly.
“I think that they will probably try to somehow persuade Trump that Europe should have a place in negotiations too.
“I don’t think that they’re going to succeed, or it will be very hard for especially just the Czech Republic to persuade Trump and his company in that way.
“Also I guess that some of them are probably shocked. Because at least some of them hoped that the deal for Ukraine was going to be better – and it seems it’s not going to be great.”
But surely the Czech government would have zero influence on the Trump administration. I mean there’s no hope in hell that the Trump government are going to listen to PM Fiala.
“Sadly so. Unfortunately when it comes to, for example, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs I’m not sure whether all politicians as well as staff understand the current situation.
“My guess is that some of them still hoped that the Trump administration would behave in a different way, that basically it was rhetoric during the campaign.
“But I usually say that when rhetoric is repeated and repeated and repeated – and I think when it comes to Ukraine Donald Trump was perfectly clear and he repeated himself, and the same goes for JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy – I think we had it coming.”
Also now we’ve had several weeks of evidence of the approach that the Trump administration is taking.
“Yes.”
The British prime minister has already said that UK troops could take part in some kind of peacekeeping mission to enforce any peace deal that may come between Russia and Ukraine. Do you think it’s likely the Czechs could also be involved?
Photo: Petr Bušta, Czech Radio
“I think that if this scenario materialises, in the sense of an actual peace agreement – which is still not there, we are talking in hypotheticals – the Czechs probably would be willing to contribute some troops.
“Nevertheless, let’s be honest, given the size of our army it would be a relatively marginal contribution.
“Also, and that’s kind of important, I’m not sure that Putin’s going to agree with some substantial military presence of soldiers from NATO countries, even if those troops would not be covered by Article 5.
“So now we are talking in pure hypotheticals.”
My final question is a big one: What are your ultimate fears of what could happen in the next couple of decades with Russia, and Russian expansionism? Are you afraid?
“My fears have basically been the same for the past 10 to 15 years: that eventually the United States is going to abandon Europe, for maybe good or bad reasons – that’s a different story.
“And that we won’t be able to soon enough readjust our defence policy, in two ways.
“First, we need to spend more, but as we said at the beginning of this interview, I’m not sure that we can do it. It seems to me that the political will is to some extent lacking.
“My fears have been the same for the past 10 to 15 years: that eventually the US is going to abandon Europe.”
“Second, it seems to me that quite often we are looking for a solution that comes from abroad.
“In the previous decades, we bet everything on the United States, and we wanted the United States to protect us. And when we saw that the US was willing to do that, we did not consider the possibility that eventually, one end, this is going to end somehow.
“And now my fear is that we’re going to bet on the European Union, in the sense that not only we would like to see more cooperation, but we will hope that the Germans or Spaniards or Italians are going to have a higher willingness to defend us than what is our own willingness to defend our country.
“That’s kind of a big problem, because if we externalise our defence, that’s a very dangerous bet.
“That’s my biggest fear, because obviously Russia one day can realise, Hey, those Western Europeans are maybe not so willing, or maybe not so able, to defend the eastern part of Europe.
“And then what’s going to keep them at bay?”
How much appetite do you think the Russians have for expanding further?
“I think less than many people would have thought. Because I think that the Ukrainian war was a kind of a lesson, a very hard lesson, even for them.
“Nevertheless, as you asked about the long time horizon, even small probabilities can accumulate.”
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Publish date : 2025-02-18 05:14:00
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