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Lithuania was the first Soviet republic to declare its independence from Moscow in 1990. As the Soviet Union collapsed the following year and the world changed, so did Lithuania. Since gaining independence, its economy grew more than 500%, and in the 21st century it has been considered one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe.
Lithuania emerged as a center for tech and auto part manufacturing that saw it become more integrated into the global economy, including more trade with Asia, especially China.
But as China has gained more power and influence around the globe, it has sought to flex its power in ways that have at times invited backlash — including in Lithuania. Chinese diplomats organized in a protest against a rally by Lithuanian citizens in support of Hong Kong’s democracy movement in 2019, leading to physical altercations between the two groups in the capital, Vilnius.
For some Lithuanians it evoked memories of times when Russia had sought to dictate their behavior. Gintaras Steponavicius, a former Lithuanian legislator, told The New York Times, “We are not used to being told how to behave, even by a superpower.”
In 2021 the Lithuanian government discovered that a popular Chinese-made phone sold in the country included a hidden registry of terms banned by the Chinese Communist Party and advised officials to stop using them, drawing rebuke from Beijing. That same year, Lithuania withdrew from a diplomatic forum promoting European portions of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, an international infrastructure program aimed at promoting trade with China.
In the summer of 2021, Lithuania agreed to a request from Taiwan to open a trade office in Vilnius, and in November 2021 the Taiwan Representative Office officially opened its doors. Most Taiwanese trade offices use the name “Taipei” rather than “Taiwan.” China regarded the use of “Taiwan” as a violation of Beijing’s “One China” principle, which asserts that Taiwan is a Chinese province.
The Chinese government quickly slapped Lithuania with sanctions banning imports from the country to China. But Beijing also went a step further with “secondary sanctions” that meant not only could Lithuanian countries not do business with China, any company doing business in Lithuania was now barred from doing business in China. Several companies packed up and left.
The following year when Russian forces expanded their war against Ukraine into a full-scale invasion, Lithuania condemned the invasion and largely saw its trade relationship with Russia drop off almost entirely.
“(We are) trying to replace that production, services, whatever we need, (and get them) from democratic countries, including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and others that we can be sure that in times of crisis we would be able to keep that relationship,” said Urbellis. “That does not apply to People’s Republic of China or Russia or Iran.”
The Global Times, a newspaper published by the Chinese Communist Party, has mocked Lithuania as “just a mouse, or even a flea, under the feet of a fighting elephant.”
From a military standpoint, Lithuania already had developed close ties with the U.S. and other European allies and joined NATO in 2004. It has divested from Russian-made military equipment it once relied on and switched to American- made systems that are interoperable with other NATO allies.
As global tensions have risen, several European countries have sought closer military ties with countries in the Pacific. In particular, Poland has been buying South Korean-made military hardware and munitions, and South Korean defense industry reps had a notable presence at the Honolulu Defense Forum.
But Urbelis said that while Lithuanian service members might soon train in the region, most of the cooperation Lithuania seeks with countries in the Pacific is “softer,” with a focus on cybersecurity, software and AI technologies. He said his country is also working with Japan on supporting Ukraine with explosive mine removal.
Lately, Lithuania has been making efforts to reconcile with China, with many Lithuanian businesses hoping to see trade reopen.
After parliamentary elections in October, Lithuania’s new prime minister, Gintautas Paluckas, said he hoped to restore full diplomatic relations with China without “humiliating” Lithuania or “falling to our knees and begging for anything.” In an interview with the Baltic News Service on Nov. 1, Paluckas said relations with China “will not be very rosy … but diplomatic relations are valuable. And one truly needs to have them.”
But suspicions remain high. In late November a Chinese ship called the Yi Peng 3 was suspected of cutting two undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea, prompting investigations from several affected countries including Lithuania. Around the same time, Lithuania announced the expulsion of three Chinese diplomats from the country for violating unspecified laws, with Beijing responding that it “reserves the right to take countermeasures against Lithuania.”
President Donald Trump, who recently returned to office for his second term, has questioned the value of alliances — particularly with countries he regards as small or weak. His administration is pursuing talks with Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, with apparent plans to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia.
It’s unclear to what degree Ukrainian or other European officials will participate in these proposed peace talks. Several members of Trump’s foreign policy team on the campaign trail voiced opposition to American assistance to Ukrainian forces and in some cases expressed sympathy with Putin and Russian forces.
As the Honolulu Defense Forum took place in Waikiki, NATO officials met for the Munich Security Conference, where Trump’s defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, said during public remarks that Ukraine would likely have to accept losing some of its territory to Russia. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian officials without Ukrainian officials invited.
This week Trump has taken to lambasting Ukraine, accusing Ukrainians of starting the war and failing to “make a deal” with invading Russian forces, and lashing out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on his social media platform Truth Social.
In a Friday interview with Fox’s Brian Kilmeade, Trump said, “I’ve had very good talks with Putin, and I’ve had not such good talks with Ukraine,” and criticized Zelenskyy as weak, saying the Ukrainian leader “has no cards, and you get sick of it,” and that it’s not “very important (to include Zelenskyy) at meetings, to be honest with you.”
During the interview Trump acknowledged that Russia initiated the war but also implied that Ukrainians brought it on themselves by not giving in to Russian demands, telling Kilmeade that “every time I say it’s not Russia’s fault, I always get slammed by the fake news. But I’m telling you, Biden said the wrong things, Zelenskyy said the wrong things, they got attacked by somebody bigger and much stronger, which is a bad thing to do and so you don’t want to do that.”
Urbelis said that what happens in Ukraine will have consequences around the world, including the Pacific. He told the Star-Advertiser that “everyone is now watching Ukraine, and what happens in Ukraine — all countries will draw away conclusions.”
“If it’s bad peace, or a peace that would be forced upon Ukrainians, dictators in this region may come to the conclusion that allies cannot be trusted and (that) you can take territories by force, suffer little bit, and that in the history books you will be remembered as a winner,” Urbellis said. “If Ukraine loses territories, loses political momentum, well, it shows something for the People’s Republic of China especially — they will make their own conclusions.”
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Publish date : 2025-02-22 02:05:00
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