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Throughout the war, China has insisted on settling the conflict through “dialogue.”
Beijing-based political observer Kan Quanqiu said that China’s statement at the UNSC, seemingly contradicting Russia’s position, comes as Moscow sees a chance to isolate Europe.
“According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine should be demilitarized. With this precondition, which is unrealistic for Europe, Russia wants to make it more difficult and impossible for Europe to come to the negotiating table,” Kan wrote.
This would allow Russia to reach a quick agreement with Washington, Kan continued.
“Sooner or later, the US under President Donald Trump will betray Europe and Ukraine with a deal,” he said.
Such a bilateral agreement threatens to upend the international security system in Europe in place since the Cold War.
The fact that Europe is facing new foreign policy challenges became clear after the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend.
The guest speaker, the new US Vice President JD Vance, did not explain what the new US administration intends to do to restore peace in Europe.
Instead, he used his speech to admonish European officials in the audience for ostensibly oppressing free speech by trying to sideline far-right political parties.
MSC: A changed world order in just one weekend?
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US turns its back on alliance with Europe
During the election campaign, Trump often said he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours after returning to office. While that deadline has lapsed, it appears that bringing the conflict to a quick end is still one of Trump’s priorities.
Establishing direct contact with Russia, which has been sanctioned by the international community for war crimes, without the involvement of Europe and Ukraine, is a sign that the US is abandoning its long-standing alliances.
Sascha Lohmann and Johannes Thimm from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told DW that “a fundamental change in mentality is required” in Europe.
With the US no longer acting as a “natural partner and ally,” but as “a country with partly opposing goals” to the EU, the two experts say Europe and Germany should “define their own interests and develop instruments to ensure their ability to act and shape the future, even in the face of resistance from Washington.”
China extends Europe a hand
From across the Eurasian continent, the Middle Kingdom is now extending its hand to the EU.
At the Munich Security Conference, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke after the US Vice President’s appearance and quickly positioned China as filling a void left by Washington’s turn towards isolationism.
Wang said China alone accounts for around 20% of UN spending, China fully implements the Paris Climate Agreement, China does not practice exceptionalism, i.e. Beijing does not “do what suits it” only when it is an advantage.
“In the face of emerging global challenges, no country can stay unaffected, and the ‘we first’ approach in international relations only leads to a lose-lose result, Wang said, adding that China “upholds true multilateralism.”
With a charming smile, Wang called for closer ties between China and Europe.
The EU has sketched out a new China policy over the past year, which describes China as a partner, competitor, and systemic rival and calls for “de-risking” or systematic distancing from Beijing. Wang seemed to reference this policy during his speech in Munich.
“China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world. The two sides are partners, not rivals,” Wang said.
His speech ended with calling for China and Europe to “deepen strategic communication and mutually beneficial cooperation, and steer the world to a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress.”
China expert: ‘Donald Trump asked China to help’ make peace
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China’s doublespeak
Political scientist Stephan Bierling from the University of Regensburg told DW Wang’s statements were “two-faced.”
China is talking about a multipolar world, but what it means is having the freedom to secure its own zone of influence, Bierling said, adding that China presents itself as a representative of the rules-based world order, but violates this order more often than anyone else.
“However, his statement now falls on somewhat more fertile ground because Vice President Vance has said nothing at all about US foreign policy. He doesn’t even consider the Europeans capable of talking about the big problems of international politics on a satisfactory level,” Bierling told DW.
Divide and conquer?
China will try to divide liberal democracies in the Western world, believes Asia expert Angela Stanzel from the SWP.
“Should there be a transatlantic rift because the Trump administration drastically reduces support for Ukraine, for example, Beijing would immediately see this as an opportunity to push European states towards strategic autonomy,” Stanzel wrote in a recent study with co-author Jonathan Michel.
“From the Chinese perspective, the aim would be for Europe to distance itself from the US to a greater extent and improve its relations with China,” the wrote.
In response, the study says core EU member states Germany and France should strengthen the geopolitical outreach of the European Commission to minimize risk coming from China while maintaining intensive transatlantic dialogue.
“Donald Trump likes to make deals and has made many impossible things possible,” said Wang Huiyao, economist and founding president of the government-affiliated, Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization.
“The EU can do business with him, as can Russia and China. Trump is therefore ignoring difficult issues such as ideology, shared values and human rights,” he told DW.
In the world order of the future, economist Wang envisions a power triangle between the US, Europe and China.
“Europe can strike a better balance between China and America. China is finding new scope in transatlantic relations. There are great opportunities, but also great challenges,” he said.
Trump prioritizes deterring China: What will Europe do?
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This article was originally written in German.
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Publish date : 2025-02-22 08:58:00
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