(Photo by Uliana Boichuk/Novyny LIVE/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Donald Trump did not end the war in Ukraine on day one of his presidency as he promised, but he still is pledging to “end this ridiculous war.” Last week he discussed a possible deal for Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for military aid, an idea that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had floated earlier. JD Vance will make his first trip to Europe as Vice President this week, stopping in Paris for an AI summit and then attending the Munich Security Conference where Ukraine will figure prominently. The upcoming anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s February 24, 2022 invasion seems like a good time to take the pulse of Americans and Europeans about the war.
As always, it is important to put American attitudes in context. Americans have long been of two minds about international involvement. We are aware that as a global power we must play a significant role, and at the same time, we are tired of disproportionately bearing global burdens and concerned about problems at home. These contrasting attitudes wax and wane depending on many things including economic concerns, presidential leadership, and increasingly, partisan cues.
Last summer, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs reported that 56% said it was best for the future of the US to play an active role in world affairs, a response on the low end of their 50-year trend. In 2023, GOP support for an active role dropped below 50% for the first time, but it inched up to 54% in 2024. Marquette University Law School asked a similar question in December and found that 60% wanted the US to take an active part in world affairs and 40% stay out. Americans’ ambivalent internationalism is evident in the results of a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, where 48% agreed “the problems of Ukraine are none of our business and we shouldn’t interfere,” and an equal 48% disagreed.
In Gallup’s December poll, 50% favored trying to end the conflict as quickly as possible even if it means allowing Russia to keep territory it has captured, while 48% wanted to support Ukraine in reclaiming territory even if it results in a more prolonged conflict between the two nations. The 50% “ending the conflict as quickly as possible” response was the highest since the question was first asked in 2022, when 31% answered that way. The new Suffolk University/USA Today poll found 50% favored reducing military aid and pushing for a negotiated settlement, with 44% opposed.
In the Marquette poll, 42% believed we were providing too much support to Ukraine, 34% about the right amount, and 25% not enough. The “too much” response was up 10 points from November 2022. In a late January Economist/YouGov poll, 27% favored increasing military aid to Ukraine, 28% maintaining it as is, and 25% decreasing it.
Turning to Europe, the European Council of Foreign Relations reported in May that “support for the war has stayed steady in the (15) European countries surveyed.” Majorities or strong pluralities in most European countries said it was a good idea to increase the provision of ammunitions and weapons supplies. At the same time, the poll revealed division between Ukraine and other European nations on the purposes of additional aid. Europeans wanted more aid to put Ukraine in a better negotiating position to achieve a settlement. Ukrainians, surveyed for the first time in this ECFR poll, wanted weapons to win the war. “The prevailing view in most countries (except for Estonia) is that the conflict will conclude with a compromise settlement,” the authors of the report wrote. Europeans appear not to believe Ukraine can win.
There were deep internal divisions in several countries. To take just one, 75% of AfD supporters in Germany wanted to push Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal. Only 37% of mainstream CDU/CSU supporters gave that response. In another area that has concerned the US, only in Poland did a majority favor increased defense spending by their country given the war.
In a subsequent poll taken after Trump’s election, 48% in 11 EU countries thought a negotiated settlement was the most likely outcome, while 21% expected Russia to win, and 7% Ukraine. Responses in the UK were similar. In the poll, opinion among Ukrainians had shifted. In May 58% of Ukrainians said the likely outcome was Ukraine winning and 30% a compromise settlement. In the new poll, those responses were 34% and 47%, respectively.
As we enter the fourth year of the conflict, it is hardly surprising that public opinion in both the US and Europe has shifted. American support for Zelensky and the Ukrainian people is still strong, as is antipathy toward Putin. Americans want a good resolution for Ukraine, and they would like to see movement. No one should underestimate the difficulties.
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Publish date : 2025-02-07 06:38:00
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