For a sign of things to come for Europe, the place to watch this week isn’t Blenheim Palace or the European Parliament but the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. There, a bandaged Donald Trump and running mate JD Vance are laying out their cards: Freeze or end the war in Ukraine, step up competition with China, embrace protectionism and crack down on immigration. It’s time Europeans prepared for the combined effect of a trans-Atlantic shock to the system – a Trump 2.0 with extra hostility.
Carving up Ukraine as part of a deal with Vladimir Putin would usher in a new world for the European Union, which is nowhere near ready to integrate Kyiv or deliver on security commitments without US support. Pressure to align with the US on China, while already tough under the Biden administration, wouldripple through top EU companies like Dutch chip titan ASML Holding NV and Germany’s Volkswagen AG. The Trumponomics playbook of prioritizing domestic demand at allies’ expense could be as dramatic as the 1971 Nixon shock that ditched the gold standard and hiked tariffs, reckons economist Bruno Colmant. (Nixon was unbothered by complaints abroad: “I don’t give a s*** about the lira.”)
Source link : https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-18/sick-men-of-europe-still-need-a-remedy-for-trump
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Publish date : 2024-07-18 06:28:00
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