A clear time trend is observed with European rainfall patterns – some regions seeing an increase, others a decrease, the reinsurance broker said.
Areas in blue on the image to the right (source: DWD) show a decrease; those in yellow an increase, Howden Re explained.
“Percent Change in Mean Daily Precipitation in Summer Months (5,6,7,8) between 1951-1975 (1961- 1975 for Czechia) and 2019-2024 (left), 1975-1997 and 2019-2024 (centre) and 1951-2008 and 2008 – 2024 (right),” the broker said.
Taking this into account Howden Re said it had developed a climate-conditioned view of European flood risk to stress test portfolios and assess the impact of these shifting trends.
Edwards said: “At Howden Re, we are championing a collaborative approach to risk management, urging all stakeholders, including cedents, reinsurers, intermediaries, and capital providers, to consider the role of flood resilience and leverage advanced risk assessments considering current day, not just historical risk.”
Extratropical cyclones of Vb type develop over the western Mediterranean and move north-eastward, leading to heavy precipitation over central Europe typically in the summer months.
Changes in climate are expected to affect the number of Vb systems that develop in Europe, Howden Re noted, with a reduction in frequency expected by the end of the century due to a northward shift of cyclone track, but more extreme Vb events expected.
“By working together, we can better understand and adapt to the changing nature of flood risks and secure comprehensive coverage to these emerging sources of earnings volatility,” Edwards added.
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Publish date : 2024-09-23 07:49:00
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