Financially, northern Europe was definitely doing better than it is now, but, in terms of unity, the continent was deeply divided on the back of the migrant crisis in 2015. Populist eurosceptic parties were also on the rise then and, following the Brexit vote in June 2016, there were widespread predictions the EU would soon lose other member countries and fall apart altogether.
Fast forward to 2025 and the EU has weathered Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the migration crisis and Trump’s first term in office – and countries very much pulled together after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
It was more of a stumbling, rather than sailing through these successive crises, but the EU is still standing and the wounds of Brexit, for example, have healed with time.
Post-Brexit UK is seen by the EU as a close ally that shares the same values in a world threatened by an ambitious China, an expansionist Russia and an unpredictable, bullish incoming US president.
Nato, meanwhile, though worried about Trump’s commitment to the alliance, has been boosted militarily and geostrategically by Sweden and Russian neighbour Finland becoming members following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Maybe, just maybe, Trump will see fewer differences that frustrate and antagonise him about Europe this time round.
It’s a Europe that recognises the need to spend more on defence, as he demands; that is far warier of China, as he expects, and that is more right-leaning in its politics, as he prefers.
Is it a Europe whose leaders also stand up to Trump, despite threats and bluster, if they feel he crosses a line – be it over human rights, free speech or dallying with dictators?
The next chapter in relations between transatlantic frenemies waits to be written.
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Publish date : 2025-01-20 16:01:00
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